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Un P90 alto significa que existe acumulación de stock no absorbido: la demanda no alcanza a la oferta al precio actual.",[],{"_key":576,"_type":401,"children":577,"markDefs":582,"style":549},"f72dd44538fb",[578],{"_key":579,"_type":405,"marks":580,"text":581},"e20636ac5daf0",[],"2.2 Fórmula de Normalización",[],{"_key":584,"_type":401,"children":585,"markDefs":590,"style":409},"9f7dc338bfac",[586],{"_key":587,"_type":405,"marks":588,"text":589},"34c3420c9e4c0",[],"SVA = 0.5 × norm_less(P90_días_venta, p95 = 200)",[],{"_key":592,"_type":499,"body":593,"markDefs":9},"412907b3102e","\\text{SVA} = 0.5 \\times norm(T_{venta}, p95 = 200)",{"_key":595,"_type":401,"children":596,"markDefs":601,"style":409},"b72b9aff1a69",[597],{"_key":598,"_type":405,"marks":599,"text":600},"36eeff5e8f710",[],"Descomposición de la fórmula:",[],{"_key":603,"_type":401,"children":604,"markDefs":614,"style":409},"6250d8254631",[605,610],{"_key":606,"_type":405,"marks":607,"text":609},"66296b9f0eb10",[560,608],"code","norm_less(x, p95)",{"_key":611,"_type":405,"marks":612,"text":613},"66296b9f0eb11",[]," es una función de normalización inversa. Dado que en SVA un valor más bajo de P90 es mejor (mercado más ágil), la función invierte la escala: los valores bajos de P90 reciben puntuación alta.",[],{"_key":616,"_type":401,"children":617,"markDefs":630,"style":409},"e13da0bc1e0f",[618,622,626],{"_key":619,"_type":405,"marks":620,"text":621},"9535b72523030",[],"El parámetro ",{"_key":623,"_type":405,"marks":624,"text":625},"9535b72523031",[608],"p95 = 200",{"_key":627,"_type":405,"marks":628,"text":629},"9535b72523032",[]," establece el valor de referencia del percentil 95 de la distribución histórica de P90 en el mercado ibérico. En la práctica:",[],{"_key":632,"_type":401,"children":633,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":638,"style":409},"a3cc7db8c2a9",[634],{"_key":635,"_type":405,"marks":636,"text":637},"7a3417c7c2c60",[],"P90 de días cercano a 0 → SVA normalizado cercano a 1.0",[],{"_key":640,"_type":401,"children":641,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":646,"style":409},"b3dbf621730d",[642],{"_key":643,"_type":405,"marks":644,"text":645},"83386243c1000",[],"P90 de días igual a 200 → SVA normalizado igual a 0 (límite inferior del mercado funcional)",[],{"_key":648,"_type":401,"children":649,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":654,"style":409},"65f63d9f31b1",[650],{"_key":651,"_type":405,"marks":652,"text":653},"cf1af95b67a90",[],"P90 de días superior a 200 → SVA normalizado negativo, truncado a 0",[],{"_key":656,"_type":401,"children":657,"markDefs":678,"style":409},"1c5348713dc7",[658,662,666,670,674],{"_key":659,"_type":405,"marks":660,"text":661},"4eefbb57b7560",[],"El factor ",{"_key":663,"_type":405,"marks":664,"text":665},"4eefbb57b7561",[560],"0.5",{"_key":667,"_type":405,"marks":668,"text":669},"4eefbb57b7562",[]," es el techo de contribución máxima de SVA al Raw IPD. Es el valor que, sumado a las contribuciones máximas de SIM y SPO, produce el valor de referencia ",{"_key":671,"_type":405,"marks":672,"text":673},"4eefbb57b7563",[608],"Raw IPD = 0.5",{"_key":675,"_type":405,"marks":676,"text":677},"4eefbb57b7564",[],", punto de inflexión del algoritmo de escala final (ver Sección 5).",[],{"_key":680,"_type":401,"children":681,"markDefs":686,"style":549},"081f44308b5d",[682],{"_key":683,"_type":405,"marks":684,"text":685},"2ef743d3e7660",[],"2.3 Lectura Operativa de SVA en Aislamiento",[],{"_key":688,"_type":401,"children":689,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":698,"style":409},"312af3d43aae",[690,694],{"_key":691,"_type":405,"marks":692,"text":693},"272bcd2c3f3a0",[560],"SVA > 0.35:",{"_key":695,"_type":405,"marks":696,"text":697},"272bcd2c3f3a1",[]," Mercado con absorción rápida. Los activos bien posicionados se venden sin resistencia temporal significativa.",[],{"_key":700,"_type":401,"children":701,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":710,"style":409},"861220e6b5ac",[702,706],{"_key":703,"_type":405,"marks":704,"text":705},"f1fa6dab01380",[560],"SVA 0.20–0.35:",{"_key":707,"_type":405,"marks":708,"text":709},"f1fa6dab01381",[]," Absorción moderada. T_Sale P90 realista en el rango 6–12 meses.",[],{"_key":712,"_type":401,"children":713,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":722,"style":409},"9ab7887b2aac",[714,718],{"_key":715,"_type":405,"marks":716,"text":717},"4163a6fdafaf0",[560],"SVA \u003C 0.20:",{"_key":719,"_type":405,"marks":720,"text":721},"4163a6fdafaf1",[]," Mercado lento. Incorporar un T_Sale P90 superior a 12 meses en el cálculo del ROI Anualizado Estresado. En estrategia EQUITY, este dato solo es admisible con un Spread que absorba ese coste temporal adicional.",[],{"_key":724,"_type":401,"children":725,"markDefs":730,"style":451},"e261a662ebcf",[726],{"_key":727,"_type":405,"marks":728,"text":729},"11e75c0401660",[],"3. Componente SIM: Sales Intensity (Intensidad de Mercado)",[],{"_key":732,"_type":401,"children":733,"markDefs":738,"style":549},"3701cff9731b",[734],{"_key":735,"_type":405,"marks":736,"text":737},"4a1abc60839e0",[],"3.1 Qué Mide",[],{"_key":740,"_type":401,"children":741,"markDefs":746,"style":409},"4bc95500829f",[742],{"_key":743,"_type":405,"marks":744,"text":745},"c1d3c54f65040",[],"SIM mide el ratio de fracaso de la oferta. Un activo expirado, es un activo que fue retirado del mercado sin haberse vendido: el precio pedido no encontró un comprador dispuesto a pagarlo en el tiempo de exposición estándar.",[],{"_key":748,"_type":401,"children":749,"markDefs":762,"style":409},"d991273b4b95",[750,754,758],{"_key":751,"_type":405,"marks":752,"text":753},"bb39f76587c10",[],"El ratio ",{"_key":755,"_type":405,"marks":756,"text":757},"bb39f76587c11",[608],"Expirados / Activos_Totales",{"_key":759,"_type":405,"marks":760,"text":761},"bb39f76587c12",[]," es un termómetro de sobrevaloración estructural o de demanda insuficiente. Cuando este ratio es alto, el mercado está rechazando los precios de oferta de forma sistemática. Es la señal más sensible y temprana de deterioro de mercado, porque anticipa la caída de precios antes de que las transacciones la registren.",[],{"_key":764,"_type":401,"children":765,"markDefs":770,"style":549},"7fb646178a13",[766],{"_key":767,"_type":405,"marks":768,"text":769},"4418f3268fe00",[],"3.2 Fórmula de Normalización",[],{"_key":772,"_type":401,"children":773,"markDefs":778,"style":409},"a7b57494b396",[774],{"_key":775,"_type":405,"marks":776,"text":777},"7aa0284c7e920",[],"SIM = norm_more(Expirados / Activos_Totales, p95 = 1)",[],{"_key":780,"_type":499,"body":777,"markDefs":9},"cea0fabe90b4",{"_key":782,"_type":401,"children":783,"markDefs":788,"style":409},"54a8698429e0",[784],{"_key":785,"_type":405,"marks":786,"text":787},"aa21ba9c66da",[],"\n",[],{"_key":790,"_type":401,"children":791,"markDefs":800,"style":409},"fd2e27191ed3",[792,796],{"_key":793,"_type":405,"marks":794,"text":795},"3885e292843d0",[560,608],"norm_more(x, p95)",{"_key":797,"_type":405,"marks":798,"text":799},"3885e292843d1",[]," es una función de normalización directa. A diferencia de SVA, en SIM un valor más alto del ratio de expirados es negativo. La función escala el ratio de forma que:",[],{"_key":802,"_type":401,"children":803,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":808,"style":409},"ccebd29c3997",[804],{"_key":805,"_type":405,"marks":806,"text":807},"5f0118adc2ac0",[],"Ratio de expirados bajo → SIM normalizado alto (mercado con alta tasa de conversión)",[],{"_key":810,"_type":401,"children":811,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":816,"style":409},"608736dfc586",[812],{"_key":813,"_type":405,"marks":814,"text":815},"4c20977d90760",[],"Ratio de expirados igual al p95 (valor de referencia histórico = 1) → SIM normalizado en su valor mínimo significativo",[],{"_key":818,"_type":401,"children":819,"markDefs":832,"style":409},"23cbf18aeaae",[820,824,828],{"_key":821,"_type":405,"marks":822,"text":823},"20bb3b1050cb0",[],"El ",{"_key":825,"_type":405,"marks":826,"text":827},"20bb3b1050cb1",[608],"p95 = 1",{"_key":829,"_type":405,"marks":830,"text":831},"20bb3b1050cb2",[]," indica que en el percentil 95 de los micro-mercados del histórico ibérico, el ratio expirados/activos totales llega a 1 (tantos expirados como activos activos). Un ratio superior a 1 es estadísticamente excepcional y señala un mercado en contracción severa.",[],{"_key":834,"_type":401,"children":835,"markDefs":840,"style":549},"d5c42deae737",[836],{"_key":837,"_type":405,"marks":838,"text":839},"9b48972a22da0",[],"3.3 Lectura Operativa de SIM en Aislamiento",[],{"_key":842,"_type":401,"children":843,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":852,"style":409},"0e1d5cfdb14b",[844,848],{"_key":845,"_type":405,"marks":846,"text":847},"c8738ff69e280",[560],"Ratio expirados \u003C 0.2:",{"_key":849,"_type":405,"marks":850,"text":851},"c8738ff69e281",[]," Mercado con alta conversión. La oferta a precio de mercado se vende. Señal de que los precios pedidos están alineados con la disposición a pagar de la demanda.",[],{"_key":854,"_type":401,"children":855,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":864,"style":409},"3530ea884580",[856,860],{"_key":857,"_type":405,"marks":858,"text":859},"e71d97f485870",[560],"Ratio expirados 0.2–0.5:",{"_key":861,"_type":405,"marks":862,"text":863},"e71d97f485871",[]," Resistencia moderada. Parte del mercado está sobrevalorado. La selección de precio de entrada es crítica.",[],{"_key":866,"_type":401,"children":867,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":876,"style":409},"9d00443b4baf",[868,872],{"_key":869,"_type":405,"marks":870,"text":871},"23058c18cad90",[560],"Ratio expirados > 0.5:",{"_key":873,"_type":405,"marks":874,"text":875},"23058c18cad91",[]," Mercado con resistencia estructural de precios. Más de la mitad de la oferta no encuentra comprador. En estrategia EQUITY, este dato alerta sobre el riesgo de que el precio de salida proyectado no sea absorbible, independientemente del Spread de entrada.",[],{"_key":878,"_type":401,"children":879,"markDefs":888,"style":409},"c4b31211e81f",[880,884],{"_key":881,"_type":405,"marks":882,"text":883},"619de1d2028b0",[560],"Señal de alerta cruzada:",{"_key":885,"_type":405,"marks":886,"text":887},"619de1d2028b1",[]," Un SVA bajo (mercado lento) combinado con un SIM alto (alta tasa de expirados) es la configuración más peligrosa. Indica simultáneamente que los activos tardan en venderse y que gran parte nunca se vende al precio pedido. Este patrón precede habitualmente a correcciones de precio. En este escenario, el AVM de RESIDELIA incorpora la señal de deterioro en la valoración; el analista debe contrastar activamente.",[],{"_key":890,"_type":401,"children":891,"markDefs":896,"style":451},"c613d24f41dd",[892],{"_key":893,"_type":405,"marks":894,"text":895},"e465310bbe8c0",[],"4. Componente SPO: Supply Presence (Presencia de Oferta)",[],{"_key":898,"_type":401,"children":899,"markDefs":904,"style":549},"2e1e2a6b960a",[900],{"_key":901,"_type":405,"marks":902,"text":903},"6ab4eb45d6720",[],"4.1 Qué Mide",[],{"_key":906,"_type":401,"children":907,"markDefs":912,"style":409},"0204011e7541",[908],{"_key":909,"_type":405,"marks":910,"text":911},"10752091662d0",[],"SPO mide el volumen absoluto de activos disponibles en el micro-mercado. No mide velocidad ni calidad de absorción: mide masa crítica de oferta. Su función en el algoritmo es correctora: un mercado con SVA y SIM favorables pero con un volumen de oferta mínimo (2 o 3 activos) puede tener un IPD alto por razones estadísticas, no por liquidez estructural real.",[],{"_key":914,"_type":401,"children":915,"markDefs":920,"style":409},"9ac0031f2c54",[916],{"_key":917,"_type":405,"marks":918,"text":919},"afe7020c13400",[],"SPO introduce el componente de profundidad de mercado: un inversor que necesita liquidar un activo necesita un mercado con suficiente actividad transaccional para que existan compradores activos, no solo potenciales.",[],{"_key":922,"_type":401,"children":923,"markDefs":928,"style":549},"fbac4d8fa3a5",[924],{"_key":925,"_type":405,"marks":926,"text":927},"23c4865fba530",[],"4.2 Fórmula de Normalización",[],{"_key":930,"_type":401,"children":931,"markDefs":936,"style":409},"af0da0df12f5",[932],{"_key":933,"_type":405,"marks":934,"text":935},"0735819706310",[],"SPO = norm_more(Volumen_Activos, p95 = 500)\n",[],{"_key":938,"_type":401,"children":939,"markDefs":948,"style":409},"fc2ecf228f9c",[940,944],{"_key":941,"_type":405,"marks":942,"text":943},"4a3fbd80017c0",[560,608],"norm_more(x, p95 = 500)",{"_key":945,"_type":405,"marks":946,"text":947},"4a3fbd80017c1",[]," escala el volumen de activos activos de forma directa:",[],{"_key":950,"_type":401,"children":951,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":956,"style":409},"43649776a297",[952],{"_key":953,"_type":405,"marks":954,"text":955},"d648142b91c40",[],"Volumen cercano a 0 → SPO normalizado bajo",[],{"_key":958,"_type":401,"children":959,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":964,"style":409},"3000e5048cc1",[960],{"_key":961,"_type":405,"marks":962,"text":963},"086aea2fa2be0",[],"Volumen igual a 500 activos → SPO en su valor máximo normalizado (p95 histórico ibérico)",[],{"_key":966,"_type":401,"children":967,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":972,"style":409},"0f72664e0c47",[968],{"_key":969,"_type":405,"marks":970,"text":971},"3e6d43bf07be0",[],"Volumen superior a 500 → SPO se trunca al valor máximo: más oferta no implica más liquidez más allá de ese umbral",[],{"_key":974,"_type":401,"children":975,"markDefs":980,"style":549},"9bdf1dc9c748",[976],{"_key":977,"_type":405,"marks":978,"text":979},"bd6d75b4c1210",[],"4.3 Lectura Operativa de SPO en Aislamiento",[],{"_key":982,"_type":401,"children":983,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":992,"style":409},"d415e6bfa5bd",[984,988],{"_key":985,"_type":405,"marks":986,"text":987},"8ee609bb3b6b0",[560],"Volumen > 200 activos:",{"_key":989,"_type":405,"marks":990,"text":991},"8ee609bb3b6b1",[]," Mercado con profundidad suficiente. El IPD total tendrá representatividad estadística adecuada.",[],{"_key":994,"_type":401,"children":995,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1004,"style":409},"22f6c9f940d0",[996,1000],{"_key":997,"_type":405,"marks":998,"text":999},"1763bb1c38710",[560],"Volumen 50–200 activos:",{"_key":1001,"_type":405,"marks":1002,"text":1003},"1763bb1c38711",[]," Mercado de tamaño medio. El IPD es orientativo pero requiere mayor contraste con datos cualitativos locales.",[],{"_key":1006,"_type":401,"children":1007,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1016,"style":409},"7bc253c9e0fc",[1008,1012],{"_key":1009,"_type":405,"marks":1010,"text":1011},"183f3013cc140",[560],"Volumen \u003C 50 activos:",{"_key":1013,"_type":405,"marks":1014,"text":1015},"183f3013cc141",[]," Micro-mercado con baja transaccionalidad. El IPD tiene menor representatividad estadística. En este rango, la valoración manual y el criterio del analista experto deben compensar la menor densidad de datos. El sistema RESIDELIA señaliza esta condición para que el analista ajuste el nivel de confianza de la métrica.",[],{"_key":1018,"_type":401,"children":1019,"markDefs":1024,"style":451},"b87cede44397",[1020],{"_key":1021,"_type":405,"marks":1022,"text":1023},"3c9d615040470",[],"5. El Algoritmo de Escala Final: De Raw IPD a Score 0–10",[],{"_key":1026,"_type":401,"children":1027,"markDefs":1032,"style":549},"1c919d7ca94b",[1028],{"_key":1029,"_type":405,"marks":1030,"text":1031},"e834bd81985c0",[],"5.1 El Punto de Inflexión: Raw IPD = 0.5",[],{"_key":1034,"_type":401,"children":1035,"markDefs":1040,"style":409},"42c5f931377f",[1036],{"_key":1037,"_type":405,"marks":1038,"text":1039},"9338cbde72490",[],"Una vez calculado el Raw IPD como suma ponderada de los tres componentes normalizados, se aplica una función de escala para convertirlo en el Score final de 0 a 10.",[],{"_key":1042,"_type":401,"children":1043,"markDefs":1055,"style":409},"b6233be4783d",[1044,1048,1051],{"_key":1045,"_type":405,"marks":1046,"text":1047},"48c4b6621d340",[],"El valor de referencia crítico es ",{"_key":1049,"_type":405,"marks":1050,"text":673},"48c4b6621d341",[608],{"_key":1052,"_type":405,"marks":1053,"text":1054},"48c4b6621d342",[],":",[],{"_key":1057,"_type":401,"children":1058,"markDefs":1063,"style":409},"f2be22c6fd8e",[1059],{"_key":1060,"_type":405,"marks":1061,"text":1062},"1f2a7e12c4840",[],"Si Raw_IPD >= 0.5 → IPD_Score = 10\nSi Raw_IPD \u003C 0.5  → IPD_Score = (Raw_IPD / 0.5) × 10\n",[],{"_key":1065,"_type":401,"children":1066,"markDefs":1071,"style":409},"5a122eae98c9",[1067],{"_key":1068,"_type":405,"marks":1069,"text":1070},"39bc935ec67d0",[],"¿Por qué 0.5? Porque 0.5 es la suma de las contribuciones máximas de los tres subíndices normalizados (SVA máximo = 0.5 × 1 = 0.5, más las contribuciones de SIM y SPO). Cualquier mercado que iguale o supere ese valor de Raw IPD está, por definición del modelo, en el percentil de máxima liquidez del histórico calibrado. Asignarle un Score de 10 no significa que no pueda existir un mercado aún más líquido; significa que desde el punto de vista operativo de decisión de inversión, ese mercado ya supera el umbral de máxima fiabilidad de liquidez.",[],{"_key":1073,"_type":401,"children":1074,"markDefs":1079,"style":409},"177ed1022460",[1075],{"_key":1076,"_type":405,"marks":1077,"text":1078},"6ff10cb8d4a50",[],"Esta elección de diseño es deliberada: el modelo no intenta crear diferencias artificiales entre mercados extremadamente líquidos. Una vez que el mercado supera el umbral de tensión máxima, la variable operativa relevante pasa a ser el precio de entrada, no la liquidez de salida.",[],{"_key":1081,"_type":401,"children":1082,"markDefs":1087,"style":549},"d8fe2a373cd2",[1083],{"_key":1084,"_type":405,"marks":1085,"text":1086},"6eb23c9134ba0",[],"5.2 Ejemplo de Cálculo Completo",[],{"_key":1089,"_type":401,"children":1090,"markDefs":1095,"style":409},"62fe2fce9339",[1091],{"_key":1092,"_type":405,"marks":1093,"text":1094},"0391c8e299370",[],"Supuesto: micro-mercado de piso de 2–3 habitaciones en zona urbana consolidada.",[],{"_key":1097,"_type":401,"children":1098,"markDefs":1103,"style":409},"72ab772e1896",[1099],{"_key":1100,"_type":405,"marks":1101,"text":1102},"3f189fc1cac60",[560],"Datos de entrada:",[],{"_key":1105,"_type":401,"children":1106,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1111,"style":409},"5631e6147ade",[1107],{"_key":1108,"_type":405,"marks":1109,"text":1110},"32450159a98b0",[],"P90 días de venta: 85 días",[],{"_key":1113,"_type":401,"children":1114,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1119,"style":409},"3dfb3ae0ee5e",[1115],{"_key":1116,"_type":405,"marks":1117,"text":1118},"74da4ca603960",[],"Ratio expirados / activos totales: 0.18",[],{"_key":1121,"_type":401,"children":1122,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1127,"style":409},"e02c4ebd94b5",[1123],{"_key":1124,"_type":405,"marks":1125,"text":1126},"0dc9d053f8150",[],"Volumen de activos activos: 340",[],{"_key":1129,"_type":401,"children":1130,"markDefs":1135,"style":409},"49a45754bd37",[1131],{"_key":1132,"_type":405,"marks":1133,"text":1134},"dc836453edac0",[560],"Paso 1: Normalización SVA",[],{"_key":1137,"_type":401,"children":1138,"markDefs":1143,"style":409},"befa2a7ba110",[1139],{"_key":1140,"_type":405,"marks":1141,"text":1142},"db4cc750947f0",[],"SVA = 0.5 × norm_less(85, p95=200)\n    = 0.5 × (1 - 85/200)\n    = 0.5 × 0.575\n    = 0.288\n",[],{"_key":1145,"_type":401,"children":1146,"markDefs":1151,"style":409},"e3e1af1bcaef",[1147],{"_key":1148,"_type":405,"marks":1149,"text":1150},"c5e594ee48df0",[560],"Paso 2: Normalización SIM",[],{"_key":1153,"_type":401,"children":1154,"markDefs":1159,"style":409},"9be84dcae3c8",[1155],{"_key":1156,"_type":405,"marks":1157,"text":1158},"dd8530e2e7660",[],"SIM = norm_more(0.18, p95=1)\n    = 1 - 0.18\n    = 0.82\n    → Contribución al Raw: 0.82 × 0.35 = 0.287\n",[],{"_key":1161,"_type":401,"children":1162,"markDefs":1167,"style":409},"3144114fbbc0",[1163],{"_key":1164,"_type":405,"marks":1165,"text":1166},"b037ec3067d30",[560],"Paso 3: Normalización SPO",[],{"_key":1169,"_type":401,"children":1170,"markDefs":1175,"style":409},"118c8778703b",[1171],{"_key":1172,"_type":405,"marks":1173,"text":1174},"4c3f8313f0280",[],"SPO = norm_more(340, p95=500)\n    = 340/500\n    = 0.68\n    → Contribución al Raw: 0.68 × 0.25 = 0.170\n",[],{"_key":1177,"_type":401,"children":1178,"markDefs":1183,"style":409},"d46341bc0601",[1179],{"_key":1180,"_type":405,"marks":1181,"text":1182},"45df6f4194890",[560],"Paso 4: Raw IPD",[],{"_key":1185,"_type":401,"children":1186,"markDefs":1191,"style":409},"ccc74c2043ce",[1187],{"_key":1188,"_type":405,"marks":1189,"text":1190},"3d24b922f9d90",[],"Raw_IPD = 0.288 + 0.287 + 0.170 = 0.745\n",[],{"_key":1193,"_type":401,"children":1194,"markDefs":1199,"style":409},"352840e7b2d6",[1195],{"_key":1196,"_type":405,"marks":1197,"text":1198},"73d2b62d6b6a0",[560],"Paso 5: Score Final",[],{"_key":1201,"_type":401,"children":1202,"markDefs":1207,"style":409},"ef372b96d1d1",[1203],{"_key":1204,"_type":405,"marks":1205,"text":1206},"579832e71e4b0",[],"Raw_IPD (0.745) >= 0.5 → IPD_Score = 10\n",[],{"_key":1209,"_type":401,"children":1210,"markDefs":1219,"style":409},"64ccc4059a08",[1211,1215],{"_key":1212,"_type":405,"marks":1213,"text":1214},"28ef894680350",[560],"Interpretación operativa:",{"_key":1216,"_type":405,"marks":1217,"text":1218},"28ef894680351",[]," Este micro-mercado está en tensión máxima. P90 de venta razonable (\u003C6 meses real), tasa de conversión de oferta muy alta (82% de activos encuentran comprador), y profundidad de mercado suficiente (340 activos). El T_Sale P90 a incorporar en el ROI Anualizado Estresado puede estimarse en el rango inferior. La exigencia de Spread mínimo se sitúa en el umbral inferior de cada estrategia.",[],{"_key":1221,"_type":401,"children":1222,"markDefs":1227,"style":451},"e5766e752925",[1223],{"_key":1224,"_type":405,"marks":1225,"text":1226},"0d0543023ab90",[],"6. IPD Venta vs. IPD Alquiler: Dos Datasets, Mismo Modelo",[],{"_key":1229,"_type":401,"children":1230,"markDefs":1235,"style":409},"d1f368c3444b",[1231],{"_key":1232,"_type":405,"marks":1233,"text":1234},"36b3f96445a80",[],"El modelo matemático es idéntico en ambas variantes. La diferencia es el dataset subyacente:",[],{"_key":1237,"_type":401,"children":1238,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1247,"style":409},"690159fdffbb",[1239,1243],{"_key":1240,"_type":405,"marks":1241,"text":1242},"10c27b4366bb0",[560],"IPD Venta:",{"_key":1244,"_type":405,"marks":1245,"text":1246},"10c27b4366bb1",[]," Calibrado sobre transacciones y oferta de venta. Relevante para estrategias EQUITY y CORE.",[],{"_key":1249,"_type":401,"children":1250,"level":199,"listItem":417,"markDefs":1259,"style":409},"eca7a26a7069",[1251,1255],{"_key":1252,"_type":405,"marks":1253,"text":1254},"ae98bd4d5ef80",[560],"IPD Alquiler:",{"_key":1256,"_type":405,"marks":1257,"text":1258},"ae98bd4d5ef81",[]," Calibrado sobre transacciones y oferta de arrendamiento. Relevante para estrategia YIELD.",[],{"_key":1261,"_type":401,"children":1262,"markDefs":1267,"style":409},"6ff1a3e9545f",[1263],{"_key":1264,"_type":405,"marks":1265,"text":1266},"25cb6d2ac4c20",[],"Un mercado puede tener IPD Venta de 8 e IPD Alquiler de 4. Esta divergencia no es una contradicción: refleja una estructura de demanda donde el mercado de compra es activo pero el de alquiler está saturado o sobrevalorado en rentas. Tomar decisiones YIELD en ese mercado con el IPD Venta como referencia es un error metodológico con impacto directo en el NOI proyectado.",[],{"_key":1269,"_type":401,"children":1270,"markDefs":1279,"style":409},"580361044fd0",[1271,1275],{"_key":1272,"_type":405,"marks":1273,"text":1274},"d5ba5fb90f630",[560],"Regla:",{"_key":1276,"_type":405,"marks":1277,"text":1278},"d5ba5fb90f631",[]," Siempre utilizar el IPD de la variante correspondiente a la estrategia de inversión. Nunca usar el IPD Venta para validar una operación YIELD, ni viceversa.",[],{"_key":1281,"_type":401,"children":1282,"markDefs":1287,"style":451},"1c5e087abcec",[1283],{"_key":1284,"_type":405,"marks":1285,"text":1286},"fa72bee1167b0",[],"7. Limitaciones del Modelo: Cuándo el IPD Requiere Ajuste Manual",[],{"_key":1289,"_type":401,"children":1290,"markDefs":1295,"style":409},"3d44bc4b8971",[1291],{"_key":1292,"_type":405,"marks":1293,"text":1294},"a8bb03ee229c0",[],"El IPD opera con máxima fiabilidad en mercados con transaccionalidad suficiente. Las siguientes condiciones reducen su representatividad estadística y exigen intervención analítica:",[],{"_key":1297,"_type":401,"children":1298,"markDefs":1307,"style":409},"14603a9d1fa1",[1299,1303],{"_key":1300,"_type":405,"marks":1301,"text":1302},"4d49cc78bbac0",[560],"7.1 Micro-mercados con SPO \u003C 50 activos",{"_key":1304,"_type":405,"marks":1305,"text":1306},"4d49cc78bbac1",[]," Volumen insuficiente para que los ratios estadísticos sean estables. Un solo lanzamiento de promoción puede distorsionar temporalmente el P90 y el ratio de expirados. Solución: ampliar el radio geográfico de análisis o complementar con análisis cualitativo local.",[],{"_key":1309,"_type":401,"children":1310,"markDefs":1319,"style":409},"77455ed846e5",[1311,1315],{"_key":1312,"_type":405,"marks":1313,"text":1314},"32f8beb8c7a30",[560],"7.2 Mercados en inflexión de ciclo",{"_key":1316,"_type":405,"marks":1317,"text":1318},"32f8beb8c7a31",[]," El IPD es un modelo de correlación histórica. En puntos de giro de ciclo (post-shock de tipos, cambio regulatorio abrupto), el histórico puede no predecir correctamente el comportamiento futuro. Señal de alerta: cuando SVA y SIM emiten señales contradictorias de forma persistente durante más de dos trimestres consecutivos.",[],{"_key":1321,"_type":401,"children":1322,"markDefs":1331,"style":409},"ce9b016f9766",[1323,1327],{"_key":1324,"_type":405,"marks":1325,"text":1326},"8bb7662d01170",[560],"7.3 Tipologías de activo con escasez de comparables",{"_key":1328,"_type":405,"marks":1329,"text":1330},"8bb7662d01171",[]," Activos singulares (patrimonio histórico, grandes superficies, usos mixtos) no tienen densidad de transacciones suficiente para alimentar el modelo. El IPD de su micro-mercado puede ser representativo del mercado general de la zona pero no del activo específico. En estos casos, el AVM y la valoración manual profesional de RESIDELIA son el instrumento primario.",[],{"_key":1333,"_type":401,"children":1334,"markDefs":1343,"style":409},"593e4f4679ca",[1335,1339],{"_key":1336,"_type":405,"marks":1337,"text":1338},"bdfe79681b500",[560],"7.4 Mercados con intervención regulatoria reciente",{"_key":1340,"_type":405,"marks":1341,"text":1342},"bdfe79681b501",[]," Una declaración de zona tensionada modifica el comportamiento del mercado de forma estructural en poco tiempo. El IPD calibrado sobre histórico pre-intervención puede sobrestimar la liquidez real del mercado post-intervención. Ajustar el T_Sale P90 con un factor corrector conservador hasta disponer de datos post-regulación suficientes.",[],{"_key":1345,"_type":401,"children":1346,"markDefs":1351,"style":451},"d4b2dd74b45d",[1347],{"_key":1348,"_type":405,"marks":1349,"text":1350},"7ae81736c0fc0",[],"8. Síntesis Operativa: El IPD como Variable de Decisión",[],{"_key":1353,"_type":401,"children":1354,"markDefs":1359,"style":409},"9b0583271dc3",[1355],{"_key":1356,"_type":405,"marks":1357,"text":1358},"c2ed2b3ab3010",[],"El IPD no es el input final de la decisión. Es la variable que determina el valor del denominador en la fórmula maestra:",[],{"_key":1361,"_type":401,"children":1362,"markDefs":1367,"style":409},"e43099657854",[1363],{"_key":1364,"_type":405,"marks":1365,"text":1366},"16904fcaf6660",[],"ROI = Margen / T\n",[],{"_key":1369,"_type":401,"children":1370,"markDefs":1375,"style":409},"d11b87336350",[1371],{"_key":1372,"_type":405,"marks":1373,"text":1374},"2ffc2b5e25330",[],"Un IPD alto comprime el T_Sale P90 → reduce el denominador → maximiza el ROI Anualizado Estresado. Un IPD bajo dilata el T_Sale P90 → infla el denominador → destruye el ROI real, independientemente del Spread de entrada.",[],{"_key":1377,"_type":401,"children":1378,"markDefs":1391,"style":409},"4600361486e8",[1379,1383,1387],{"_key":1380,"_type":405,"marks":1381,"text":1382},"ad8c83f8b9e30",[],"La implicación operativa es directa: ",{"_key":1384,"_type":405,"marks":1385,"text":1386},"ad8c83f8b9e31",[560],"un Spread extraordinario en un mercado con IPD bajo no es una operación mejor que un Spread moderado en un mercado con IPD alto.",{"_key":1388,"_type":405,"marks":1389,"text":1390},"ad8c83f8b9e32",[]," El ROI Anualizado Estresado resolverá cuál de las dos operaciones genera más valor por unidad de tiempo y de riesgo.",[],{"_key":1393,"_type":401,"children":1394,"markDefs":1399,"style":409},"c131ce77ccf4",[1395],{"_key":1396,"_type":405,"marks":1397,"text":1398},"fec0a517090a0",[],"Cuantificar el IPD es cuantificar el tiempo. Y en inversión inmobiliaria profesional, el tiempo es la única variable que el inversor no puede recuperar una vez consumida.",[],{"_id":6,"lessons":1401,"shortTitle":19,"slug":20,"title":19},[1402],{"_id":15,"shortTitle":16,"slug":17,"title":18},"2026-03-09T14:43:39Z","El IPD (Índice de Presión de Demanda) no es una opinión sobre el mercado. Es una función matemática con tres inputs, tres transformaciones de normalización y una ponderación calibrada sobre histórico transaccional de una zona.",[1406,1411,1416,1421,1426,1431,1436,1441,1446,1451,1456,1461,1466,1471,1476,1481,1486,1491,1496],{"_key":444,"_type":401,"children":1407,"markDefs":1410,"style":451},[1408],{"_key":447,"_type":405,"marks":1409,"text":449},[],[],{"_key":534,"_type":401,"children":1412,"markDefs":1415,"style":451},[1413],{"_key":537,"_type":405,"marks":1414,"text":539},[],[],{"_key":542,"_type":401,"children":1417,"markDefs":1420,"style":549},[1418],{"_key":545,"_type":405,"marks":1419,"text":547},[],[],{"_key":576,"_type":401,"children":1422,"markDefs":1425,"style":549},[1423],{"_key":579,"_type":405,"marks":1424,"text":581},[],[],{"_key":680,"_type":401,"children":1427,"markDefs":1430,"style":549},[1428],{"_key":683,"_type":405,"marks":1429,"text":685},[],[],{"_key":724,"_type":401,"children":1432,"markDefs":1435,"style":451},[1433],{"_key":727,"_type":405,"marks":1434,"text":729},[],[],{"_key":732,"_type":401,"children":1437,"markDefs":1440,"style":549},[1438],{"_key":735,"_type":405,"marks":1439,"text":737},[],[],{"_key":764,"_type":401,"children":1442,"markDefs":1445,"style":549},[1443],{"_key":767,"_type":405,"marks":1444,"text":769},[],[],{"_key":834,"_type":401,"children":1447,"markDefs":1450,"style":549},[1448],{"_key":837,"_type":405,"marks":1449,"text":839},[],[],{"_key":890,"_type":401,"children":1452,"markDefs":1455,"style":451},[1453],{"_key":893,"_type":405,"marks":1454,"text":895},[],[],{"_key":898,"_type":401,"children":1457,"markDefs":1460,"style":549},[1458],{"_key":901,"_type":405,"marks":1459,"text":903},[],[],{"_key":922,"_type":401,"children":1462,"markDefs":1465,"style":549},[1463],{"_key":925,"_type":405,"marks":1464,"text":927},[],[],{"_key":974,"_type":401,"children":1467,"markDefs":1470,"style":549},[1468],{"_key":977,"_type":405,"marks":1469,"text":979},[],[],{"_key":1018,"_type":401,"children":1472,"markDefs":1475,"style":451},[1473],{"_key":1021,"_type":405,"marks":1474,"text":1023},[],[],{"_key":1026,"_type":401,"children":1477,"markDefs":1480,"style":549},[1478],{"_key":1029,"_type":405,"marks":1479,"text":1031},[],[],{"_key":1081,"_type":401,"children":1482,"markDefs":1485,"style":549},[1483],{"_key":1084,"_type":405,"marks":1484,"text":1086},[],[],{"_key":1221,"_type":401,"children":1487,"markDefs":1490,"style":451},[1488],{"_key":1224,"_type":405,"marks":1489,"text":1226},[],[],{"_key":1281,"_type":401,"children":1492,"markDefs":1495,"style":451},[1493],{"_key":1284,"_type":405,"marks":1494,"text":1286},[],[],{"_key":1345,"_type":401,"children":1497,"markDefs":1500,"style":451},[1498],{"_key":1348,"_type":405,"marks":1499,"text":1350},[],[],"Comprensión operativa del IPD como indicador de liquidez de micro-mercado.","2026-04-22T06:15:55Z",1776840552529]